Analyzing the Cup Playoff Drivers and the Round of 16

NASCAR's Playoff system has been in place for several years now and we've seen drivers we expect to do well, fail, and expect to fail, impress. But here are the 16 Playoff drivers and what you might be able to expect in the Round of 16. With the addition of the NEXT GEN car in 2022, we don't have a massive database of information for a single driver, but this is what we know based on the NEXT GEN.  

Round of 16 drivers for the 2023 Cup Series Playoffs. Image: NASCAR

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By: Tom Luttermoser

Kyle Busch

2023 Playoff Standings: 5th Seed. 3 Wins. 19 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff appearances: All of them: 2014-2023

​2022 Round of 16: was a HORRIFIC season for the 2x Cup Champion. It was the first time he had been eliminated from the Round of 16 after 2 DNFs at Darlington and Bristol and finishing 2 laps down at Kansas. All of this despite being the car to beat at Darlington. 

Round of 16 Track Avgs: Busch has a combined average finish of 24th on the 3 upcoming tracks with an average finish of 23.3 at Darlington, 21.3 at Kansas, and 34th at Bristol. 

'23 Statistical Expectations: Busch is a very up-in-the-air driver for 2023's Round of 16.

Denny Hamlin 

​2023 Playoff Standings: 3rd Seed. 2 Wins. 25 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: All of them: 2014-2023 (Tied Most all-time with Harvick)

2022 Round of 16: Was VERY good to Hamlin, 2 runner-up finishes and a 9th place finish at Bristol propelled Hamlin easily into the Round of 12. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Denny Hamlin's combined avg of 7.28 is fantastic for the 7 times we have visited these tracks since the start of the '22 season. He has avg finishes of 11.66 at Darlington, 2.33 at Kansas, and 9th at Bristol all put him far toward the top statistically. 

​'23 Statistical Expectations: His finishes in the NEXT GEN at all 3 tracks show Hamlin as a near guarantee to move on to the Round of 12, maybe even with a 3rd season victory. 

Chris Buescher

​2023 Playoff Standings: 4th Seed. 3 Wins. 21 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 2x. 2016, 2023

2022 Round of 16: Although not in the 2022 Playoffs, Buescher would have been a Round of 12 lock-in after his 2nd career win at Bristol despite finishes of 26 at Darlington and 15th at Kansas. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Buescher has a combined avg finish of 16th on the dot over the last season and a half with an avg finish of 17.33 at Darlington, 19.66 at Kansas, and a win at Bristol.

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Based solely on statistics, this is tough to say, but Buescher and RFK are the best Ford teams in the sport right now, momentum, his Playoff points and vast improvements over the last 12 months make him a sure fit for the Round of 12.

Martin Truex Jr

​Playoff Standings: 2nd Seed. 3 Wins. 36 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 8x. 2015-2021, 2023

2022 Round of 16: Truex missed the Playoffs for the first time since 2014 in 2022 by only a couple points despite sitting 2nd in the points standings. His 3 finishes in the round were horrible and VERY un-Truex-like. Truex finished outside the Top 30 at Darlington and Bristol but 5th at Kansas. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Average combined finishes of 20.14 shows the struggles of the 19 team in 2022 and early in '23 with avg finishes of 28.66 at Darlington, 6.33 at Kansas, and 36th at Bristol.

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Truex and the 19 team have really changed their fortunes since the first 1/3 of the '23 season. He is still the all-time Stage Point earner and continues that climb which will help greatly... Plus that 15 Playoff Points for winning the regular season title. Round of 12, here he comes. 

William Byron

​Playoff Standings: 1st Seed. 5 Wins. 36 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 5x. 2019-2023

2022 Round of 16: Byron's 2022 Round of 16 propelled him to the Round of 12 with 3 Top-10s including a 3rd place finish at Bristol
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​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Combined, Byron's Round of 16 tracks net him an avg of 7.14 with a Darlington avg of 7.33, 8.33 at Kansas, and 3rd at Bristol

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Byron will go right along with Truex into the Round of 12 due to his 36 playoff points. But his average at these tracks since the introduction of the NEXT GEN is more than enough to ensure him in.

Bubba Wallace

​Playoff Standings: 16th Seed. 0 Wins. 0 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 1st appearance 

2022 Round of 16: Wallace is making his first appearance into the Playoffs, but last season's Round of 16 would have been a lock into the Round of 12 with a win at Kansas. His 9th place finish at Darlington wouldn't have hurt either and the 29th at Bristol wouldn't have hurt anything.

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: A combined avg finish of 12.14 isn't too shabby with his 29th at Bristol really pulling him down. He has a track average of 13.66 at Darlington and 5th at Kansas with a win.

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Statistically this is his best round in the Playoffs, and if you use your head and not personal opinions on the driver, especially as close as each driver is points-wise, you will NOT count Wallace out of a Round of 12 showing. 

Brad Keselowski

Playoff Standings: 9th Seed. 0 Wins. 10 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances:  9x. 2014-2021, 2023

2022 Round of 16: Brad missed the Playoffs for the first time since 2013 last season. Brad's "Round of 16" was an average one with a Top-10, a Top-15, and a 25th-place finish at the Ro16 tracks.

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: A Combined avg finish of 16.57 since the NEXT GEN was introduced is not a terrible number, and not the worst on this list. His track avgs of 15th at Darlington, 19.33 at Kansas, and a finish of 13th at Bristol.

​'23 Statistical Expectations: This is NOT the same RFK as 2022 and both Brad and Chris have proven that. With that being said, I don't think you can count Brad out as a contender for the Round of 12, his best friend or worst enemy though can be... How close the points are from Top to bottom. +29 to -8.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Playoff Standings: 14th Seed. 1 Win. 5 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 2x. 2017, 2023 

2022 Round of 16: Stenhouse Jr. had a decent year in 2022 for JTG Daugherty despite missing the Playoffs. But his Ro16 record last season would have absolutely kept him out of the Round of 12. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: A combined avg. of 19.85 at the Ro16 tracks in a year and a half with track avgs of 18.6 at Darlington, 16.66 at Kansas and a 33rd place finish at Bristol

​'23 Statistical Expectations: JTG's No. 47 team has had a dream season in 2023, but Stenhouse Jr and the 47 crew have not had a spectacular mid-season and momentum can make a difference, even for a Daytona 500 champion. Unless there is a drastic change, I expect Stenhouse out after Bristol. 

Kyle Larson

Playoff Standings: 6th Seed. 2 Wins. 17 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 7x. 2015-2019, 2021-2023 

2022 Round of 16: Larson's 2022 Ro16 was pretty damn good with a worst finish of 12th at Darlington and a best of 5th at Bristol, he moved on to the Round of 12 pretty easily. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Larson has one of the better avg combined finishes at 10.57 in the Ro16 with track averages of 22.66 at Darlington, 4th at Kansas, and a 5th at Bristol

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Larson is not lighting the world on fire in 2023, a lack of momentum coming into the first round of the Playoffs could hurt. Statistically though, Larson at these tracks basically grant a 2nd round lock.

Christopher Bell

Playoff Standings: 7th Seed. 1 Win. 14 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 3x. 2020-2023 

2022 Round of 16: 3 Straight Top-5 finishes in 2022's Ro16 was more than enough to lock Bell into the Round of 12

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Bell's avg Ro16 track finishes is 9.85 with track averages of 8.33 at Darlington, 14.66 at Kansas, and a th place finish at Bristol.

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Bell and the 20 team's statistical averages are nearly enough to lock him into the Round of 12, but close points, no momentum and middle of the road Playoff Points could hold him back from a repeat of 2022's Playoff accomplishments 

Joey Logano

Playoff Standings: 11th Seed. 1 Win. 8 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 9x. 2014-16, 2018-2023 

2022 Round of 16: Logano had a less than spectacular 2022 in the Ro16, starting off with a 4th at Darlington, things got worse and worse until the 20 team left Bristol with a 27th-place finish. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Logano's 12.85 average finish in the 7 trips to these 3 tracks is more mid-range in this list but track averages seem a bit better with a 7.66 at Darlington, 13.33 at Kansas, and he finished 27th at Bristol. 

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Logano's statistical average says he should be mid-pack for the Ro16 and with a less than spectacular 8 Playoff Points and nothing real to show they are a major contender, he's a potential to miss the Round of 12. 

Kevin Harvick

Playoff Standings: 15th Seed. 0 Win. 4 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: All of them, 2014-2023 (Tied for Most All-Time with Denny Hamlin) 

2022 Round of 16: Happy Harvick's 2022 Ro16 was horrific, it was his earliest Playoff exit ever since the implementation of the elimination format. Finishes of 33, 36 & 10 sealed his fate. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Harvick's combined average finish at the 3 Ro16 tracks is 15.85 in the NEXT GEN. His track averages are 13th at Darlington, 20.66 at Kansas, and 10th place at Bristol.

​'23 Statistical Expectations: "The Closer", "Happy Harvick", has 1 last shot at going out on top. He sits second to last in the Playoff standings, with 4 Playoff points to his name and a pinch of momentum. Harvick is going to need Top-5s to move on. Or a win. Or some of his competition not performing, to move on to the Round of 12

Michael McDowell

​Playoff Standings: 13th Seed. 1 Win. 7 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 2x. 2021, 2023 

2022 Round of 16: Last season's Ro16 was kind to McDowell despite not being in the Playoffs. The 6th at Darlington, the 16th at Kansas, and the 11th at Bristol are all good finishes for the 34 crew. Not sure it would have transferred them, but solid.

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: A combined average finish of 17.42 puts McDowell a little higher on this list. Mile-and-a-half tacks are not Front Row Motorsports bread and butter. Track averages of 15.33 at Darlington, 24th at Kansas, and 11th at Bristol

​'23 Statistical Expectations: McDowell and the FRM crew have really done something special in the middle part of the season, if not for electrical issues at Watkins Glen, McDowell could have even run his way to his 3rd career victory. But Statistically, I just cannot see McDowell moving to the Round of 12. 

Ross Chastain

Playoff Standings: 8th Seed. 1 Win. 11 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 2x. 2022-2023 

2022 Round of 16: Ross Chastain's first Playoff appearance went pretty well through the Ro16. Despite a 20th-place finish at Darlington, Ross scored 2 Top-10s to close out the Round. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: A combined average of 14.85 in the Ro16. Chastain's track averages are 26.33 at Darlington, 6.33 at Kansas and a 6th place finish at Bristol

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Ross doesn't have the 5 Playoff points from a second win that he had last season, and his averages are not spectacular. In a season where there is a 37-point gap from 1st seed to 16th, anything can happen. Good or Bad. 

Ryan Blaney

Playoff Standings: 12th Seed. 1 Win. 8 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 7x. 2017-2023 

2022 Round of 16: Blaney's Ro16 in 2022 was less than average, but he did manage to move on. finishes of 13th, 9th, and 30th were Juuuust enough to squeak by. 

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Blaney's combined average is 15.14 in the Ro16. A 30th place finish at Bristol, 13th average at Darlington, and 12.33 at Kansas. 

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Blaney doesn't get me to excited in the Round of 16, His averages are not spectacular and Penske as a whole just doesn't seem to have it all together. Could they have been saving for the Playoffs? Sure. But is that where you want to put your money? I don't 

Tyler Reddick

Playoff Standings: 14th Seed. 1 Win1. 0 Playoff Points

Elimination Format Playoff Appearances: 2x. 2017, 2023 

2022 Round of 16: The Ro16 was not kind to Reddick in his last season with Richard Childress Racing, he was quickly removed from Playoff contention with a poor showing following a pretty damn good mid-season.

​Round of 16 Track Avgs: Reddick has an average finish of 18th at the 3 Ro16 thracks. Track averages of 9th at Darlington, 24.66 at Kansas, and a finish of 25th at Bristol. 

​'23 Statistical Expectations: Reddick's first season with Toyota and 23XI started strong and slowed down in the second quarter of the season, Reddick could potentially have had better performance if it weren't for the notoriously inconsistent 23XI Pit Crews. They are, in my mind, going to be a MASSIVE variable in himself or his teammate moving on.